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 Spedito - 09/12/2019 : 08:06:18
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The Colts seem to be set for 2019 [url=https://www.coltsfanshop.com/Ryan-Kelly-Jersey]Ryan Kelly Color Rush Jersey[/url] , but after that?" />Skip to main contentclockmenumore-arrownoyesHorizontal - WhiteStampede Bluean Indianapolis Colts communityLog In or Sign UpLog InSign UpFanpostsFanshotsColtsShopAboutMastheadCommunity GuidelinesStubHubMoreAll 322 blogs on Horizontal - WhiteFanposts Fanshots Colts StoriesScheduleRosterStatsYahoo Colts NewsYahoo Colts Team PageYahoo Colts ReportYahoo Colts Depth ChartYahoo Colts TransactionsYahoo Colts PhotosShop About Masthead Community Guidelines StubHub #10005;Filed under:Colts AnalysisColts’ Future at the Tight End PositionNew,29commentsThe Colts seem to be set for 2019, but after that?EDTShareTweetShareShareColts’ Future at the Tight End PositionAs of right now, the Colts may have one of the deepest, if not the deepest, Tight End room in the NFL. At the top they are led by Jack Doyle and Eric Ebron, both Pro-Bowlers. Behind them are Mo Alie-Cox and Ross Travis, both basketball converts with a plethora of athletic upside. However, the Colts fan base has begun to wonder where this group, specially Ebron and Doyle, may find themselves two [url=https://www.coltsfanshop.com/Margus-Hunt-Jersey]https://www.coltsfanshop.com/Margus-Hunt-Jersey[/url] , three, four years down the line. In this article I’m going to go through what I believe will be the scenario that plays out through the 2019 season and off-season. Eric EbronProjectionTo even begin to fathom the idea that Ebron will have the type of season he had last year, at least from a statistical sense, would be absolutely ridiculous. In 2018, Ebron compiled 66 receptions, for 750 yards (11.4 YPC) and 13 TDs. Before even comparing that to his previous 4 years in Detroit, the mere fact that he had scored a receiving touchdown every 5 catches (20% of the time) should tell you that the production will most definitely not be replicated. Throughout his stay with the Lions, Ebron averaged 46.5 catches, 517.5 yards and 2.75 TDs a year. And while one would hope that Ebron could muster more than that in a Colts offense that has a top-5 quarterback and one of the best play-callers in football, it must be kept in mind that out of the the average 71 offensive snaps the Colts have a game about 25-30 will go to the running game and the other 35-40 will be passing downs. Luck passes the ball 39.9 times a game. Of those 40 passes, 27.5 will be completed (as his completion percentage was 67.3%). Of those 27.5 completions [url=https://www.coltsfanshop.com/Peyton-Manning-Jersey]Peyton Manning Jersey[/url] , it can be estimated that about:5 will go to T.Y. Hilton3 will go to Devin Funchess *5 will go to Nyheim Hines2 will go to Deion Cain *3 will go to Chester Rogers/Marlon Mack/Zach Pascal4 will go to Jack Doyle2 will go to Parris Campbell *(*)are predictionsThis leaves about 3.5 completions for Ebron to capitalize on, or a total of 56 catches in 2019. If you take his career average YPC (11.2) you project 627.2 yards total, and if you compare his catch to TD ratio without the outlier of 2019 you get 16.9:1. With 2019 in mind you get a ratio of 10.5:1. A vast difference, so I decided to average the two ratios out to 13.7 catches per touchdown. This would set up his 2019 projected TD rate to about 4. Bringing his stat line to 56/627/4, a reasonable number considering the additions made to the team.Resign?If Ebron churned out a season like this, with his age taken into consideration (26), I could certainly see Ebron getting a 3-year $30 million dollar front loaded contract with about 45% guaranteed. This would reflect a similar contract to the which Jimmy Graham signed, except Graham is 32 and his guaranteed percentage is 36.67%. Possible breakdown for Ebron’s contract could be:Year 1: $6.5 million guaranteed ($3.5 million on incentives)Year 2: $4.5 million guaranteed ($5.5 million on incentives)Year 3: $2.5 million guaranteed ($7.5 million on incentives)Jack DoyleProjectionI predicted that jack Doyle would have a 4 catch per game average (64 catches) in 2019. However, I could see that number taking a hit as Doyle was Luck’s primary safety blanket in 2017 when he was asked to hold the ball for 2.88 seconds. However, in Reich’s system Luck holds the ball 2.66 seconds and he has a new safety blanket in Hines. Therefore, the stat line of 64/550.4/4 TDs seems plausible. However [url=https://www.coltsfanshop.com/Al-Woods-Jersey]Al Woods Color Rush Jersey[/url] , I would see that as a ceiling instead of a floor, barring injury to Ebron.Resign?Jack Doyle is a fan favorite and a loved member of the Colts locker room. However, taking into consideration his injury, his age (30 at the end of the season), and his decreased role in the Colts system, it would be hard seeing the Colts resign him for anything but a cheap short-term deal. I could see him signing a 2-year deal worth about $10 million dollars with 33% guaranteed. In a sense, a 1 year deal with a team option in 2020.ConclusionI would believe it is plausible for Ebron to have a stat line of 56/627/4 and Doyle a stat line 64/550/4 TD. And if the 2019 season does play out in a similar fashion to this scenario, it would make sense to resign Ebron and draft a tight end in the 3-5th round range to replace Doyle. Moments after being booed by some Colts fans, Andrew Luck talked about how difficult it was to leave them.After news of his shock retirement broke, Luck spoke moments after the Colts preseason game he watched from the sidelines.“This is not an easy decision,” Luck said [url=https://www.coltsfanshop.com/Erik-Swoope-Jersey]https://www.coltsfanshop.com/Erik-Swoope-Jersey[/url] , via Mike Garafolo of NFL Network. “Honestly it’s the hardest decision of my life. But it is the right decision for me.”The 29-year-old Luck talked about being “stuck in a cycle of rehab from numerous injuries, and said the multiple issues had “taken my joy of this game away.”“I can’t live the life I want to live,” he said of dealing with the injuries, including the latest ankle issue.Luck’s becoming emotional while he talks about this, but he has always been an extremely grounded human being, who didn’t let the result of a ball game define him.And as tough as the decision must have been, he looks to be at peace with his decision.
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